Today I attended a meeting of the European advisory board of the HELM study (Harnessing European Labor Mobility): experts from across Europe are discussing possible scenarios regarding labour mobility within Europe. During the train ride I had the opportunity to catch up on a backlog of reading and read an article in last week’s the Economist of  about how technology will very likely change the workplace.

All kinds of jobs will cease to exist due to the taking over of tasks currently performed by humans by robots. Cashier, telemarketer, taxi driver, bus driver and accountant were a few of the jobs mentioned as being likely to disappear. Doctors, teachers, fashion designers, athletes and plumbers are jobs that will remain, according to the article. During the lunch break at our meeting in Brussels, I took the Economist article a step further. Many routine medical  tasks can be robotized and will most likely result in better-personalized health care, less medical errors, and the need for fewer medical doctors. Given the demographic changes and the increase in an elderly population, we will need to free up those doctors to ensure adequate healthcare for the entire population anyway. I did not think I was saying anything revolutionary but several people looked at me in horror: Talking to a machine instead of a doctor was by some not considered progress. And yet, I’m convinced that standard medical tasks are better performed by a machine and we should ‘keep’ that doctor for the intelligent conversation about how to interpret the results: Luckily some did agree with me here.

For the remainder of the afternoon, we wrestled with future labour mobility scenarios and what policy recommendations should come with these situations. Heated debate and in-depth discussions could not prevent us from reaching agreement on several issues, but what stands out most for me, is the need to invest in training and education at all levels of the labour market. And that brings me back again to the Economist article: Education -from kindergarten to university- needs to be reviewed and revised. If we fail to provide the (European) population with the creativity and the independent thinking that separate us from computers, will we lose an entire generation to unemployment. If the cashier is not just sliding the articles across a scanner, but provides some added value by putting your groceries in a bag*1, if the bus driver does not just stop at the indicated stop, but ensures safety in the bus*2, if the doctor does not run a standard test, but has the time to think about the test results in combination with your medical history and previous medication*3 – none of these jobs have to become obsolete – they may just change in nature.

Apart from some jobs changing in nature, we will certainly lose some occupations too, but likewise, new roles will be needed. Before the industrial revolution, we had people lighting the street lanterns, we now need people who can design a smart strategy for lighting public spaces only when light is needed. So yes, it is going to hurt, as every transition hurts. The Economist mentions that 100 years ago, 1 out of 2 Americans worked on a farm, nowadays only 2% of the American population produces a lot more food than back then. Or to use a more recent example, Kodak, employing 145.000 people, had to file for bankruptcy, whereas a few months later Facebook bought Instagram for 1 billion dollars. Instagram at that moment employed only 13 people … Those people at Kodak, like the farmers 100 years ago, have to rethink and maybe re-invent their career. It hurts for those people who lost their jobs, they seem to be the casualties in the war for talent. Governments, companies and individuals need to get into action and anticipate the changes to ensure this current revolution knows many winners.

In my opinion, the only remedy to survive this current revolution, is to provide people across all skills levels with the education that maximizes their potential. And that education does not stop, but is ongoing, a true ‘education permanente’ recognizing the needed skills, knowledge and attitude to ensure that as many people as possible can make the transition and be(come) creative enough to outsmart artificial intelligence.

Nannette Ripmeester

*1. I’m aware this happens already in some countries and I feel confident to say that in those countries you will most likely see ‘self-cashier’ counters next to counters manned by people, giving the customer the choice of where to pay.

*2 I’m aware that most bus drivers will try to do this anyway, but it may take more than one person to service a truly safe bus ride.

*3 And yes, I’m aware, standard tests are already often performed by others than the doctor, but if a physician stops losing time with standard and routine check-ups she (he) can shift her (his) focus to the most sick patients.

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